opment. Although some direct causal relationships can be established in both directions between educational expansion and fertility decline, these relationships are seen in true perspective only when viewed as integral components of an ongoing process of socioeconomic development, which is itself both contributing to and benefiting from both the expansion of education and the decline in fertility. The feedback effects depicted are part of the very essence of the development process, part of the reordering of institutions, values, goals, and social relationships that this process requires. They do not, perhaps cannot, occur in isolation.
The diagram is necessarily simplified. To some extent it illustrates an ideal situation rather than the way things always work out in practice. For example, a reasonably well-educated electorate does not necessarily produce good leaders, nor is it necessarily well-informed about the problem of population growth, particularly if this subject is not taught in the schools (as it normally is not). Or again, more rapid economic development permits, but does not ensure, greater spending on education.
What is the evidence for some of the relationships set out in the diagram? Some of it is inferential, some is drawn from survey data, and some from historical association. A few comments on these relationships can begin with the bottom half of the diagram, showing the effects of educational expansion and economic development on fertility. The recognition that education may affect fertility, incidentally, is not new; many of the classical economists speculated about it.*
It is helpful analytically to recognize that changes in socioeconomic variables can act on fertility only through their effects on a number of "intermediate variables" that may be broadly classified in sequence into three groups: exposure to intercourse, exposure to conception, and the chances of gestation and successful parturition.' The effect of socioeconomic variables on these intermediate variables, moreover, may be through changes in norms regarding family size and/or one or more of the intermediate variables.
There is no question that the desire to educate their children is very widespread among parents in the developing countries and that even when education is provided free or subsidized by the government, the costs of special fees, uniforms, and perhaps transportation and support away from the home, together with the sacrifice involved in keeping children out of the labor force or at least away from home chores, can contribute powerfully to
*"Malthus had hoped that the spread of education would result in greater continence. Senior had hoped that compulsory education would dampen population growth because children would no longer be earning assets to their parents when taken out of the labor market. Mill added an argument for more favorable labor force opportunities for women, so improving the alternatives to marriage and motherhood as to retard population growth still further" (40).
TFor a more detailed classification, see (41, 42).sed sharply, as in the projection with increasing enrollment rates, average length of service of the teaching force will fall. Thisary structure. In developing countries level of qualifications is normally given far more weight.and